Hello Guardians!

For a long time now there hasn’t been many details to talk about that weren’t totally subject to change, or simply easier to talk about on TankCast. However we’ve entered the tuning phase of talents now, and since most of them are mechanically fine it makes sense to finally examine them and see where they are in terms of effectiveness. Obviously some talents are more of a feel or playstyle choice, but there are definitely still informed decisions to be made. So let’s get started.

### Level 15 Talents

We have one talent with a very defined offensive and defensive benefit in Brambles, and two talents that generate more Rage which can be used for both offense and defense in Blood Frenzy and Bristling Fur. The quesiton is how good are they at each? Since Brambles is obvious, we need to first figure out how much damage Rage contributes. Since the only way to convert Rage into damage is with Maul, we just determine how much damage one Rage is worth. To do that we follow some simple steps to find the damage-per-Rage (DPR) of Maul:

- First we define how to calculate the desired value: DPR = (Melee * Multiplier * Versatility * Artifact) * (1 + (Crit+0.1))*(1 – Armor DR)/Rage Cost
- Then we remove terms that duplicate for Brambles: DPR = (Melee*Multiplier)*(1+(Crit+0.1))*(1 – Armor DR) / Rage Cost
- Since we know that the biggest difference the Maul Crit trait will cause is 9.1%, we can replace it with an additional constant: DPR = (Melee*Multiplier)*1.091*(1 – Armor DR) / Rage Cost
- Fill in known constants: DPR = (Weapon DPS + (AP/3.5))*1.5*1.091*0.68/20
- Simplify: DPR = 0.055641(Weapon DPS + (0.28571*AP))

So it really comes down to how much weapon DPS you have which determines your total Maul damage. The overall contribution from AP is only ~1.5897% per Rage, but how does that stack up for each of the talents? Blood Frenzy is 0.66 RPS per target (or 1 RPS per 1.5s melee), and since Brambles also scales with the number of targets attacking you that is never going to be enough Rage income to overtake Brambles. However Bristling Fur scales with incoming damage, so generally it will end up generating more Rage over time except in sustained AoE situations. Is it enough? The easy answer to that question is unsurprisingly, math.

- Determine Rage needed to equal Brambles AP coefficient: 0.01589719011X = 0.24 = 15
- Determine Rage needed per Bristling Fur use: 40*15/1.5 = 400

That tells us the absolute most you would need is to take 400% of your HP in damage when Bristling Fur is active *and then* spend all of that Rage on Maul. Reality is probably somewhere closer to half that value, which is ~200% of your hp in damage (to get 200 Rage) which is close to 40% per melee swing, which we’ve been told is not going to happen. Therefore we can draw the conclusion that neither Bristling Fur nor Blood Frenzy will ever be equal to Brambles for pure damage. But what about survival?

Let’s start at the other end. Blood Frenzy gives one extra use of either Ironfur or Mark of Ursol every 67.5s per target. The easiest way to look at it is in terms of EHP which simplified, is (HP / (1-%DR)). Using that we can determine how much of an increase in EHP one MoU gives:

- %EHP Increase = (HP / (1-%DR2)) / (HP / (1-%DR1))
- Add known Magic DR: %EHP Increase = (HP / 0.567) / (HP / 0.81)
- Simplify: %EHP Increase = 0.81/0.567 = 1.4285714285714285714285714285714 or 42.857% more EHP for ~10 seconds or so after traits and talents

Unfortunately Ironfur isn’t so easy. We know that any equal percentage increase in Armor generates the same *constant* amount of EHP, which means the percentage increase in EHP decreases as Armor increases. Instead we’ll have to think about it slightly in the abstract. Consider that the EHP increase from one Ironfur is some value Y. We know that Brambles is esentially a flat EHP bonus since it applies to every damaging event you receive. Therefore in the case of Blood Frenzy, we’re looking at 45 melee swings at 0.24AP each, for a total of 10.8AP. Let’s use a real-world example to see if they’re comparable using a Beta 110 PvP Premade which has 2,296,297 Health, 5572 Armor, and 17,705 AP.

- Using the values above we know that the you will gain ~1,202,296 EHP with each Ironfur application.
- Since we would be adding HP for Brambles, we remove the DR to find that we need a total of 714,549 to match Ironfur.
- 10.8 * 17,705 = 191214 which means Brambles will never come close to Blood Frenzy, or subsequently Bristling Fur.

Now, these assumptions ignore that Ironfur would only last ~10 seconds. However I believe that limitation is handily countered by the fact you can apply the Ironfur whenever you want within those 67.5 seconds, and that EHP has consistently been demonstrated to only valuable when you need it. We also know that HP scales a lot faster than AP making it impossible for Brambles to catch up from starting values this low. Thus while Brambles is clearly far and away the best DPS talent of the three, both Blood Frenzy and Bristling Fur handily defeat Brambles for pure survival.

On the topic of Bristling Fur vs Blood Frenzy, I think Blood Frenzy is a little bit too weak in comparison. There are almost never situations where 3-4 targets are active for long durations. Usually you only end up with 1, or possibly 2. Sometimes you have a large number of targets for 5-10 seconds, but that’s not enough to justify taking Frenzy for difficult content. There should still be a gap, but maybe one not quite so large. I’d suggest nerfing it to 0.75-0.8 Rage per % HP in damage taken.

### Level 30 Talents

The only change for movement talents is that Guttural Roars replaces Feline Swiftness (which is now part of Feral Affinity). However there’s a new, additional problem for Displacer Beast. Legion introduces a new “shapeshifting cooldown” which is incurred every time you change forms. That means every time you use Displacer Beast you are prevented from using any damaging abilities for 3 seconds. You can still use cooldowns and trinkets, but that’s not much consolation. Unfortunately this change means that use of Displacer Beast is going to be further restricted to only those instances where a blink is absolutely necessary. Unfortunately I think this punishes Guardians the most out of everyone.

Guttural Roars will end up being the default talent for most raid scenarios since Stampeding Roar can function as both a personal and raidwide movement increase. Wild Charge is clearly great for solo, 5 person, and pvp content. I think Displacer Beast will be the odd one out for this set of talents.

### Level 45 Talents

Here we have the new quasi-support “affinity” talents. We’ll set aside Restoration and the passive effects for now, and just look at the pure DPS output of Balance and Feral. To start with, Feral Affinity grants a 35% bonus to energy regenration which is multiplicitive with Haste. However we’ll start with a base value of 135 Energy per second (EPS) for now. Since we don’t have to worry about Primal Fury it’s easy to approximate ability usage.

In order to “accurately” (at least within a reasonable measure of error) we’ll define a cycle as 30 seconds, since that works for both Feral and Balance fairly well. Within that window for Feral we know there will be 1 Thrash, 1 Rip, and some number of Shreds. We also know that we’ll start with 100 Energy and gain 10*1.35*(1+Haste) energy every second. Combine all of that information and we can come up with a formula to approximate Feral Affinity DPS.

- DPS = ((Melee + Shred)*Armor) + Rip + Thrash
- Add unique variables: DPS = ((1+Haste)*(Weapon Damage))*0.68+(# Shreds*13.74/30*(Weapon Damage/2)*0.68+(AP*0.6186/30)+(AP*2.19/30)+(80*0.14*AP/30)
- Determine Shreds: DPS = ((1+Haste)*(Weapon Damage))*0.68+(((20+(30*10*1.35*(1+Haste)))/40)*13.74/30*(Weapon Damage/2)*0.68+(AP*0.6186/30)+(AP*2.19/30)+(80*0.14*AP/30)
- Simplify: DPS = ((1+Haste)*(Weapon Damage))*0.68+(((20+(405*(1+Haste)))/40)*0.31144*(Weapon Damage/2))+(AP*0.46695333333333333333333333333333)
- Fill in Sample PvP Data: DPS = ((1+0.1033)*(12750))*0.68+(((20+(405*(1+0.1033)))/40)*0.31144*(6375))+(18450*0.46695333333333333333333333333333)
- DPS = 9565.611+23171.7795+8615.288 = 41352.6785

It’s worth noting that I’ve excluded all multipliers which are common between both affinities. This includes Versatility, Crit, Mastery, and Artifact Traits. Haste is included because it impacts each of the specs very differently. Additionally I accounted for Cat Form’s doubled AA damage by dividing the Shred multiplier by 2, instead of doubling the AA damage. So, let’s move on to Balance.

Surpriingly Balance is much easier to calculate. All of the spells are purely based on AP, and the only ability that has a varying number of casts in a 30 second window is Solar Wrath. Everything else is fixed. There will be 3 Starsurges, which also means 3 empowered Lunar Strikes and 3 empowered Solar Wraths. There will also be 2 Moonfires and 3 Sunfires. All remaining time is spent on regular Solar Wraths, since its AP/Cast Time value is higher than a regular Lunar Strike. We then combine all of that information to again, come up with a formula to approximate Balance Affinity DPS.

- DPS = (3*SS+3*ELS+3*ESW+2*MF+3*SF+((30-Total Cast Time)/(1.5/(1+Haste))*SW))/30*NI
- Add unique variables: DPS = ((3*1.1*4.5*AP)+(1.2*3*3.5*AP)+(1.2*2.2*3*AP)+(2*(0.45+(4*(1+Haste)))*AP)+(3*(0.9+(3*(1+Haste)))*AP)+(((30-(3*2/(1+Haste))-(3*2.5/(1+Haste))-(8*1.5/(1+Haste)))/(1.5/(1+Haste)))*2.2*AP))/30*1.2
- Simplify: DPS = (35.37AP+(2*(0.45+(4*(1+Haste)))*AP)+(3*(0.9+(3*(1+Haste)))*AP)+(((30-(3*2/(1+Haste))-(3*2.5/(1+Haste))-(8*1.5/(1+Haste)))/(1.5/(1+Haste)))*2.2*AP))/30*1.2
- Add sample data: DPS = (35.37*(18500)+(2*(0.45+(4*(1+0.1033)))*18500)+(3*(0.9+(3*(1+0.1033)))*18500)+(((30-(3*2/(1+0.1033))-(3*2.5/(1+0.1033))-(8*1.5/(1+0.1033)))/(1.5/(1+0.1033)))*2.2*18500))/30*1.2
- DPS = (654345 + 179938.4 + 233649.45 + 206186.2)/30*1.2 = 50964.762

So we can clearly see that Balance pulls ahead of Feral pretty substantially. Interestingly enough it appears to be purely because of Nurturing Instinct granting an extra 20% spellpower. If that was reduced back to being equal, Balance and Feral would end up being pretty close together. However I don’t know what the consequences would be for the intended target of Resto, but that would be easy to solve by having Resto grant a healing bonus of some kind. But one remaining question is how does this compare to Guardian DPS?

- DPS = (4WD*1.2*Mangles*1.15*Armor) + (2.4AP*Thrashes + 0.15AP)*1.15 + 1.2*(0.45AP*Moonfires + ((0.5/2)*Haste)) + (1-Mangles-Thrashes-Moonfires)*2WD*1.2*Armor + Melee*Armor + (Maul*WD*Armor)/3
- Insert formulae and simplify: DPS = 1.9332857504WD*Haste + (0.4AP*Haste+0.15AP)*1.15 + 0.43AP*Haste + 1.632WD*(1-0.20889*Haste – 0.1666666666666667*Haste – (0.125/Haste))
- Add sample data: DPS = 1.9332857504*(15937.5)*1.1033 + (0.4*18450*1.1033+0.15*18450)*1.15 + 0.43*18450*1.1033 + 1.632*15937.5*(1-0.20889*1.1033-0.1666667*1.1033 – (0.125/1.1033))
- DPS = 33994.5945591351 + 12546.3321 + 8753.03055 + 13469.20634270108 = 68763.16355183618

So obviously Guardian DPS (on a single target) approximation beats the pants off of either Feral or Balance Affinity DPS. That’s clearly not the intention because you have no reason to ever shift except for resto, because there’s no benefit. Plus this doesn’t talents or cooldowns. Expect significant buffing of both in order to make them remotely viable beyond passives.

As for, Restoration, it ends up being the only affinity with a distinct survival benefit. This also means it will end up likely being the default selection for most people. I doubt many people will end up using Feral or Balance for actual DPS outside of Mythic raiding or possibly PvP, since those are generally the situations where maximizing DPS is of reasonably high importance. That’s fine, since it harkens back to the Bearcat era anyway.

### Level 60 Talents

Here we have the new and consolidated crowd control talents. None of these have changed in function, which means Mass Entanglement is still effectively useless. You’re left with a choice between Mighty Bash and Typhoon, so you’ll end up picking whichever one is most appropriate for the situation. It’s quite a shame that Mighty Bash, out of all of the possible talented stuns for tanks, is by far the worst. Hopefully some tuning ends up being done. Maybe the Guardian version of Bash should be a cleave? I don’t know, but certainly something.

### Level 75 Talents

These talents are all about *active* Rage generation, or generating additional Rage from rotational abilities. At least on paper anyway, in reality you end up with 3 talents that have varying levels of Rage generation and DPS benefit – which is what makes a good set of talents anyway. In any case Soul of the Forest is a good baseline to start with, so let’s look at its total Rage generation. Thankfully the formula remains (almost) unchanged from Warlords, so it’s pretty easy to evaluate.

- RPS = ManglesPerSecond*Rage
- Insert formula: RPS = 1/(1/((0.2*(1/(GCD*2))+(0.8*0.2)*(1/(GCD*3))+(0.8-(0.8)*0.2)*(1/(GCD*4)))))*5
- Convert to Haste: RPS = 1/(1/((0.2*(1/((1.5/H)*2))+(0.8*0.2)*(1/((1.5/H)*3))+(0.8-(0.8)*0.2)*(1/((1.5/H)*4)))))*5
- Simplify (<3 Wolframalpha): RPS = 1.044445H
- Sample PvP Data: RPS = 1.044445 * 1.1143 = 1.1638250635

The reason I converted it to a simple equation based off of Haste (or rather, Wolframpalpha did) is because Galactic Guardian also scales from Haste, and I needed a common way to compare the two. In any case, the result is a reasonably simple and accurate equation for determining the tangible value of Soul of the Forest. If we’re to compare it to Galactic Guardian, we need to come up with a way of calculating the number of procs per second.

- RPS = (Melee+GCD+Thrash DoT)*15
- Convert to Time: RPS = ((0.1*(1/(2.5/H)))+(0.1*(1/(1.5/H)))+(0.1*1/3))*15
- Simplify (<3 Wolframalpha): RPS = 1.600005*(H+0.3125)
- Sample PvP Data: RPS = 1.600005*(1.1143+0.3125) = 2.2828

We can see from the start that Galactic Guardian is nearly twice as good as Soul of the Forest before even considering the fact that GG also scales with the number of targets since it triggers per damaging event. That’s a little unfortunate. GG should be better, but not *that much* better. But what about Incarnation?

We know that for Rage generation purposes all Incarnation does is remove the CD from Mangle. However that also means you don’t generate any Gore procs because you aren’t pressing buttons other than Mangle (in terms of the best case survival scenario). So at best we’re talking about ((30/(1.5/H))*6)/180 or 2/3H RPS. That’s…..pretty bad in comparison to either of the other two talents. However Incarnation definitely has a redeeming quality in that it allows us to do *huge* burst DPS for cleave or AoE situations. That fact alone means it will likely see huge amounts of play in Mythic+ dungeon content.

### Level 90 Talents

The gut reaction to this set of talents is going to be “why on earth would I ever use Earthwarden“? Well we know that Earthwarden is bad for any situation where incoming damage is split between more than one source, because each charge cannot apply to more than one damaging event whereas GoE would apply to all of them within the 2 second extension. So what we need to is compare the 2 second extension on some number of Ironfurs (since if you’re extending Mark of Ursol then GoE automatically wins) to one charge of Earthwarden.

In a 2 second window at 1.5s attack speed we’ll assume that for the best case scenario Ironfur will affect two attacks. Which means GoE has an equivalent of a 15% EH increase spread over two attacks. We know from using our sample data earlier that we’ll end up with an extra 2 seconds of ~1.2mil EHP, while GoE would grant ~400k for the same period of time. *However* if you’re able to also have one Ironfur up at the same time (which isn’t that unreasonable with full talents) that value jumps to ~675k which turns out slightly better than the additional 2 seconds of Ironfur, and that doesn’t include the starting 3 charges or the fact you will generate them faster than you would a new Ironfur. What does it all mean?

Take GoE for tanking more than one target, dual wielding targets, magic damage, or where self-healing is important. Earthwarden will probably perform better for you against a standard 1.5s (or slower) swing boss. Survival of the Fittest is merely for more cooldowns, similar to where you would have taken the old Bristling Fur. However you might find that it also performs very well in Mythic+ 5 person content.

### Level 100 Talents

So that leaves us with the last talent tier, which is really easy to evaluate. We know that Lunar Beam heals for 24*AP total, however that value is also multiplied by Versatility, Crit, and our Mastery bonus. Using the sample data, we can easily generate a total heal of ~691,465. Unfortunately that only happens every 90 seconds. Healing for ~30% of your HP is no small thing, however consider Rend and Tear over the same period. For R&T to equal that, you only have to take (100(691,465))/6 or 11,524,420 over 90 seconds which is ~128,049 DTPS. That’s a pretty trivial number to reach in any kind of content. In all honesty I’d probably cut the cooldown of Lunar Beam in half for it to be a midpoint between R&T and what Pulverize will end up sitting at.

Speaking of Pulverize, it’s a complete waste of a talent at 8%. It needs to be at least 12% for anyone to consider taking it over R&T.